2026 ELECTION PREDICTIONS

Each federal election year, I put together charts for clients and friends detailing my evolving thoughts on the outcome of the elections. I make my choices based on a review of polls, Sabato, Cook, NY Times, RCP, FTP’s “State of Play,” prediction markets, and gut. I will update these charts every Tuesday, as well as provide some thoughts on why I made changes to the previous week’s predictions with my final charts/thoughts posting the morning of the election, November 3.

Keep me honest and give me your thoughts! — Steve

BLUF: Lots of changes in the Dem direction with more races getting increasingly competitive. That said, it does not change my 50-50 Senate prognostication at this time. I am however, taking the Dem majority to 225, up from 223 last week.

 Here are the differences from last week:

• I’m putting five previously solid/safe Rep races on the board, moving them to Likely Rep: AR-2, GA-7, FL-11, FL-16 & IN-5.

• Some Republican “1’s” are getting competitive: MN-1, NE-1 & PA-1, and thus are shifting from Likely to Lean Rep.

• And a Dem “1” that was subject to a gerrymander that made it a much more Rep district is moving to tossup: NC-1 (and I’m putting it into the Dem win column).

• 2 other Lean Reps are now gaining toss-up status (but still believe the Rep pulls it off at this point): FL-9 & IA-2.

• FL-25 is looking more and more like a Dem win despite the FL legislature’s effort to make it a more Rep district – thus shifting into the Dem win column. And while we’re talking about FL, though I’m not ready to move to toss-up status just yet, FL-13 and FL-27 are heating up and getting very interesting – we’ll see where they stand next week.

• I’m also putting CA-6 on the chart moving from Solid/Safe Dem to Likely Dem. Interesting dynamics with current Rep. Kevin Kiley running as an independent after shedding his Rep affiliation earlier this year.

• On the Senate side, I’m shifting three Rep races that are getting more competitive: Nebraska and South Carolina are moving from Likely to Lean Rep, and Idaho is moving from Safe to Likely Rep.